Pitt vs Toledo Prediction, Odds & Opt Outs

• Check out our Pitt vs Toledo prediction for the GameAbove Sports Bowl on December 26
• The Panthers are touchdown favorites over the Rockets at Ford Field
• Read on for Pitt vs Toledo odds, picks, and best bets for this bowl clash

The Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) and Toledo Rockets (7-5) clash in the GameAbove Sports Bowl on Thursday, December 26 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. This matchup features a Power Five program taking on a sneaky-good Group of Five contender.

Kickoff is set for 2:00 p.m. ET on ESPN, with the game being played indoors away from Detroit’s chilly 40°F weather. Vegas has installed Pitt as a touchdown favorite, with the total sitting at 50.5 points. Both squads limp into this postseason battle sporting identical 7-5 records, though they took very different paths to get here.

Here is our Pitt vs Toledo prediction for Boxing Day.

Pitt vs Toledo Prediction

Pitt came out of the gates blazing, racing to a perfect 7-0 start behind quarterback Eli Holstein’s solid play (2,225 passing yards, 17 TD, 7 INT). But the wheels fell off when Holstein went down, as the Panthers dropped their final five contests while mustering just 19.2 ppg during that skid.

Holstein remains a question mark for this one, which looms large over the matchup. Adding salt to the wound, backup QB Nate Yarnell has since hit the transfer portal.

The Panthers still have some juice with RB Desmond Reid (797 rush yards, 4 TD). But Pitt’s ground game hit rock bottom with just 23 rushing yards in their finale against Boston College. The defense hasn’t helped either, getting gashed for 33.4 ppg during the losing streak.

Toledo’s season in the MAC has been a rollercoaster ride. The Rockets pulled off an eye-opening win at Mississippi State but stumbled late with head-scratching losses to Ohio and Akron. Under center, Tucker Gleason has been solid (2,457 yards, 22 TDs, 7 INTs), finding chemistry with his go-to targets Jerjuan Newton (64 grabs, 949 yards, 11 TD) and Demeer Blankumsee.

The Rockets’ offense has sputtered at times, ranking just 112th in EPA/Play and struggling to establish any rhythm on the ground. But their defense has been the real deal, surrendering only 21.3 ppg (25th nationally) and a stingy 5.0 yards per play. The secondary duo of Maxen Hook and Braden Awls has combined for five picks.

Braden Awls: BALLHAWK 🦅@ToledoFB pic.twitter.com/w8f9MiErrZ

— 2StripesCPD (@2StripesCPD) September 7, 2024

Given the cloud hanging over Pitt’s QB situation and Toledo’s stout defense, I’m leaning toward the Rockets plus the points here. Toledo’s offense might not light up the scoreboard, but their defense should keep this within striking distance. If Holstein is officially ruled out, hammer the under 50.5 as well. This one could come down to which team wins the turnover battle.

That said, if Holstein gets the green light and looks close to 100%, pivot to Pitt laying the touchdown and the over 50.5. The Panthers clearly have the talent edge, and a healthy Holstein changes everything about their offensive ceiling. In that scenario, Pitt could pull away late while both offenses find their groove.

Picks:

• If Holstein Doesn’t Play: Toledo +7 | Under 50.5
• If Hoplstein Does Play: Pitt -7, Over 50.5

Updated Pitt vs Toledo Odds

Here are the latest lines for this CFB bowl matchup:

• Spread: Pitt -7 (-110) | Toledo +7 (-110)
• Moneyline: Pitt -275 | Toledo +225
• Total: Over 50.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110)

The standard -110 juice on both sides of the spread and total tells us bookmakers feel pretty dialed in with these numbers. A $110 wager on Pitt -7 would net you $100 if the Panthers win by more than a touchdown. Similarly, backing Toledo +7 at $110 pays out $100 if the Rockets keep it within 7 or pull the upset.

Pitt’s -275 ML price suggests a 73.3% chance of victory, while Toledo’s +225 returns translate to a 30.8% shot at the outright win. For what it’s worth, ESPN’s FPI model is slightly less bullish on the Panthers, putting their win probability at 69.6%.

Sharp vs public money trends could tell us more here. Bowl season often sees some interesting betting patterns emerge. If you’re looking to get involved, tracking where the smart money lands versus public perception could provide valuable clues.

Notable Opt-Outs

All eyes are on Pitt QB Eli Holstein’s status for this one. He’s been nursing ankle and shoulder issues that derailed the back half of their season. Head coach Pat Narduzzi remains “hopeful” about Holstein suiting up, but nothing’s guaranteed. The situation got dicier when backup Nate Yarnell jumped into the transfer portal after starting the Boston College game.

The Panthers will also be without their top playmaker, as Konata Mumpfield is sitting this one out to protect his NFL Draft stock. Losing Mumpfield is a brutal blow to a Pitt offense already facing serious question marks.

Jeremiah 29:11- “For I know the plans I have for you,” declares the Lord, “plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future”🛐 pic.twitter.com/dhK75XeV7Z

— Konata B Mumpfield (@konata_b) December 10, 2024

On Toledo’s side, they’ll be without S Jay’Quan Bostic, WR Larry Stephens, TE Tysen Smith, and DL Zach Potter, who have all entered the portal. While these losses sting, they’re not quite as devastating as Pitt’s potential absences. The Rockets should still field a fairly complete roster for this contest.

Keep an eye on our opt-out tracker as we get closer to kickoff. Bowl season roster shuffling, especially at key spots like Pitt’s QB situation, can dramatically shift both the odds and overall betting landscape.