Iowa vs Missouri Prediction, Odds & Best Bets for Music City Bowl

• The Iowa Hawkeyes meet the #19 Missouri Tigers in the 2024 Music City Bowl on Monday, Dec. 30
• The SEC’s Tigers are 2.5-point favorites against a Hawkeye team that will be missing leading rusher Kaleb Johnson
• Below, see the Iowa vs Missouri predictions, picks, and best available odds for the Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN

Two teams looking to cap off solid, if not spectacular, seasons meet in the 2024 Music City Bowl as the Missouri Tigers (9-3, 8-4 ATS) tangle with the Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4, 6-5-1 ATS). Kickoff from Nissan Stadium in Nashville, TN, is scheduled for 2:30 pm ET on Monday, Dec. 30, and the Tigers are listed as slim 2.5-point favorites in the latest NCAAF odds while the game total is at just 40.5, the lowest O/U in all of bowl season.

Iowa vs Missouri Prediction

• Missouri Tigers -2.5 (-112) at DraftKings Odds as of Dec. 29. See the full list of DraftKings deposit methods before signing-up. 

The Iowa vs Missouri odds opened with the Tigers laying 3.5 points but the line has come down to just 2.5 over the last couple weeks. While the bowl game opt-out tracker shows the Hawkeyes missing a few significant pieces, including leading rusher Kaleb Johnson (1,537 yards, 21 TDs), who’s sitting out to protect his health before the NFL draft, the Tigers will also be without their top draft prospect: WR Luther Burden III (676 yards, 6 TDs), whom CBS ranks as the #7 overall NFL prospect in the entire country.

The opt-outs should have a bigger impact on the Hawkeyes than the Tigers, though. Burden is phenomenal, but he wasn’t even Missouri’s leading receiver this season. That honor belonged to senior Theo Wease Jr (809 yards, 3 TDs). Missouri will also have starting QB Brady Cook and its top-two running backs, Nate Noel (804 yards, 3 TDs) and Marcus Carroll (578 yards, 12 TDs) in the lineup.

Missouri (29.2 PPG) had a more potent offense than Iowa (28.0 PPG) during the regular season and it enters the Music City Bowl more intact. Whether it was senior Cade McNamara (1,017 yards, 6 TDs, 5 INTs), junior Brendan Sullivan (344 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs), or sophomore Jackson Stratton (219 yards, 1 TD), the Hawkeyes really struggled to move the ball through the air this year. They averaged just 131.7 yards per game, which was 131st out of 134 FBS teams.

And now they have to try to move the ball without their RB1, who accounted for 39% of the Hawkeyes’ yards from scrimmage and 55% of the team’s offensive touchdowns.

With McNamara, who missed the final five games due to concussion, entering the transfer portal, Sullivan projects to start on Monday. The junior missed the final two games of Iowa’s season with an ankle injury. The Hawkeyes still managed to beat Maryland (29-13) and Nebraska (13-10) in Stratton’s first to career starts.

All of Missouri’s losses this season came in true road games against top-25 teams: 41-10 at Texas A&M, 34-0 at Alabama, and 34-30 at South Carolina. Iowa doesn’t fit the bill and I expect Cook and company to do enough against the Hawkeyes’ stellar defense to get to double-digit victories for the second time in three years.

Iowa vs Missouri Odds

The Iowa vs Missouri spread is sitting at 2.5 across the board roughly 24 hours from kickoff. The best odds on Iowa to cover are currently -100 at both FanDuel and ESPN Bet. DraftKings has the best price on Missouri to cover at -112.

DraftKings also has the best moneyline price on Missouri at the moment at -135, while FanDuel has the longest moneyline odds for Iowa at +125.

The vast majority of books have the total at 40.5 with the under slightly favored. The lone exception is bet365, which has lowered to O/U to 40.0 with -110 odds both ways.

The NCAAF public betting splits show the Tigers getting a lot of love against the spread. So far, 84% of ATS handle is on Missouri to cover. That said, the public sees the Hawkeyes as better value on the moneyline, putting 59% of moneyline handle on the underdog.