Expert Tennessee vs Georgia Prediction, Updated Odds & Injury News for Week 12

• No. 7 Tennessee looks to keep their playoff hopes alive against No. 12 Georgia
• QB Nico Iamaleava’s status remains questionable after last week’s injury
• Read below for our Tennessee vs Georgia prediction, updated odds & injury updates

The No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers (8-1, 5-1 SEC) face a season-defining matchup against the No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs (7-2, 5-2 SEC) on Saturday, November 16. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia, with the game broadcast on ABC/ESPN+.

This SEC showdown carries major College Football Playoff implications. The Vols sit atop the SEC standings and control their own destiny, while the Bulldogs are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive after a stunning loss to Ole Miss last week.

Georgia opened as a 10.5-point favorite, but sharp action has moved the line to -9.5, suggesting Tennessee may be undervalued.

Tennessee vs Georgia Prediction

Georgia has dominated this rivalry in recent years, winning seven straight by an average margin of 26.4 points. But this Tennessee team presents a unique challenge with its high-powered offense led by QB Nico Iamaleava. The Vols have won four straight, including a signature win over Alabama, and rank 11th nationally in scoring at 38.2 points per game.

However, Iamaleava’s status is the biggest question mark heading into Saturday. The dynamic sophomore was injured against Mississippi State and began the week in concussion protocol. Coach Josh Heupel expressed confidence Iamaleava will play, but his availability and effectiveness could swing the game.

Josh Heupel discussing Nico Iamaleava’s status ahead of the Georgia game. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/kq6nce6HAK

— Josh Ward (@Josh_Ward) November 11, 2024

If Iamaleava can’t go, the Vols turn to unproven backup Gaston Moore. That would be a significant downgrade against a Georgia defense that ranks 5th in points allowed (12.6 per game). The Dawgs have struggled offensively with QB Carson Beck’s inconsistency (12 INTs), but their defense remains elite.

Georgia’s two losses have exposed some vulnerability, though. The Bulldogs are just 2-7 ATS as a favorite this season, struggling to cover big numbers. They’ve also failed to cover in three straight home games, a first under Kirby Smart.

The sharp action moving the line to Georgia -9.5 suggests the market views the Bulldogs as overvalued, even at home. If Iamaleava plays and is effective, Tennessee’s offense can exploit a Georgia secondary that ranks 114th in passes defensed. The Vols are also 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season.

• Prediction: Tennessee +9.5
• Best Bet: Tennessee +9.5 (-110)

The Vols are live dogs catching nearly double-digits against a Georgia team that has consistently fallen short of market expectations. If Iamaleava plays, Tennessee has the offensive firepower to keep this within the number and potentially win outright. Back the Vols +9.5 as the sharp side in a game they can’t afford to lose.

Updated Tennessee vs UGA Odds

Georgia remains the favorite, but the line move from -10.5 to -9.5 is significant. At -400 on the moneyline (implied probability 80%), the Bulldogs are still heavy chalk to win outright. But the spread adjustment suggests oddsmakers are accounting for Tennessee’s upset potential with a healthy Iamaleava.

The total has also ticked up from 47 to 48.5, as the market expects Iamaleava’s return to juice the scoring. Still, the Under has hit in 4 of the past 6 meetings and is the more heavily bet side at -120. Both defenses rank in the top 12 nationally in points allowed.

Odds as of Nov. 16, 2024 at Caesars Sportsbook. Bet on Tennessee-Georgia with the best sports betting app. 

Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava Injury Report

Iamaleava’s status is the most critical injury news heading into Saturday. The Volunteers’ star QB suffered an apparent concussion against Mississippi State, putting his availability in doubt. Coach Heupel said Iamaleava has “been good” in practice and expects him to play, but he remains questionable.

If Iamaleava can’t go, it’s a massive blow to Tennessee’s upset bid. In his last 3 games, the sophomore has thrown for 823 yards, 6 TDs and just 1 INT while adding 87 rushing yards. His dual-threat ability stresses defenses and opens up the Vols’ entire playbook.

Without him, Tennessee turns to senior Gaston Moore, who has attempted just 42 passes in his career. Moore could lean heavily on workhorse RB Dylan Sampson (1,129 rush yards, 20 TDs) to carry the offense. But against Georgia’s stingy front seven, the Vols need Iamaleava’s dynamic playmaking to have a chance.

The Bulldogs are relatively healthy, though they’ve battled injuries on the offensive line all season. LT Earnest Greene (questionable) and RG Xavier Truss have particularly struggled in pass protection, contributing to QB Beck’s turnover woes. If the Vols’ pass rush can generate pressure, Beck could be in for another long day.

Ultimately, this game hinges on Iamaleava’s availability. With him, Tennessee has a real shot to shock Georgia between the hedges and shake up the CFP picture. Without him, the Bulldogs’ defense could smother a one-dimensional Vols attack.

Monitor his status closely leading up to kickoff, as the spread could move further if he’s ruled out. But for now, the smart money appears to be on Tennessee catching 9.5 points in a season-defining spot.