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Leg 1: Both Teams To score
Two teams with excellent attacking quality but often suspect defences meet at Stamford Bridge, which should guarantee goals.
Chelsea have now seen both teams to score land in 7 straight Premier League games, and in 9 of their last 11. Both teams to score has even landed in two of their four Conference League games, with both Gent and Panathinaikos managing to score against the Blues.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, have a goal difference of 0, scoring and conceding 19 goals in the Premier League so far. Conceding 19 goals is actually the sixth-worst tally of any side in England’s top flight this season.
Both Teams to score has landed in 8 of Aston Villa’s last 10 Premier League games, and in 9 of their 12 league games in total. They have kept just 1 clean sheet in the league all season long, coming against Man United. They have also only failed to score in only 1 of their 6 Premier League games on the road, which was away to Liverpool at Anfield, suggesting they are likely to find the net at least once here.
Leg 2: Over 2.5 Chelsea Cards
Chelsea cards have been a familiar target for us here at Bad Man Betting this season, with the Blues racking up more cards than any other Premier League side by some distance, accumulating a whopping 45 in just 12 games.
That is an average of 3.75 cards per game so far this season, with second-placed Southampton sitting way back on 3.33. Surprisingly, they are picking up just as many cards at home as they do away, having seen at least 3 bookings in each of their last 5 home league games. Nine of their last 11 league games have seen them pick up at least 3 bookings.
Aston Villa’s opponents have seen the third-most cards in the league this season, averaging 3.33 cards per game, or 40 in 12 league matches. The Villans have seen their carded at least 3 times in 8 of their last 11.
The referee is Stuart Attwell, who is yet to referee Chelsea this season. He has officiated one Aston Villa game however, where he awarded 4 cards to their opponents.
Leg 3: Cole Palmer To Be Fouled 2+ Times
Chelsea’s Cole Palmer is the second most fouled player in the Premier League, drawing 29 fouls in 12 games. After a slow start, in which he won just 2 fouls in his opening 3 games of the league season, he has now been fouled 2 or more times in 7 of his last 9.
Across these last 9 games, Palmer has actually been fouled 3 or more times in all 7 of the matches in which he drew multiple fouls. He has also now been fouled at least once in all but 1 of his 12 league starts.
His average sits at 2.50 fouls won per 90, so there looks to be every chance that he will be fouled twice or more here. He will be up against Youri Tielemans and Amadou Onana, who have committed 1.61 and 2.05 fouls per 90. With a midfield pair more than happy to get stuck in and commit fouls, there is every chance Palmer is fouled twice here.
Leg 4: Youri Tielemans To Be Fouled 2+ Times
Youri Tielemans is Aston Villa’s most-fouled player, racking up 21 fouls won in his 12 league starts so far this season. His average sits just a shade below this line, at 1.78 fouls won per 90, so this mark should be easily achievable.
The Belgium international has won two or more fouls in 5 of his last 8 league starts, and in 5 of his 6 Premier League games away from Villa Park. Away from home, Tielemans averages 2.07 fouls won per 90. He has also been fouled in every single Premier League game this season and has played the full 90 minutes in 10 of their 12 matches.
He will be up against Moises Caicedo, who commits 1.97 fouls per 90, and Enzo Fernandez, who commits 0.90 fouls per 90. The former has fouled twice or more in 6 of his last 7 league games, with 3 of those games seeing Caicedo foul 3 or more times. With Fernandez having fouled in each of his last 5 league starts, Tielemans to draw 2 or more fouls looks like great value at evens here.
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Chelsea vs aSTON viLLA predicted lineups
cHELSEA vs aSTON viLLA team stats
cHELSEA vs aSTON viLLA shots and shots on target stats
Chelsea vs Aston viLLA goals and assists stats
cHELSEA cards and fouls stats
aston villa cards and fouls stats
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