Buffalo vs Liberty Prediction, Odds & Key Opt Outs

• Our Buffalo vs Liberty prediction for the 2025 Bahamas Bowl is in
• The Bulls are favored against the Flames in this MAC vs Conference USA clash
• Read on for Buffalo vs Liberty prediction, odds & notable opt outs for Saturday

The 2024-25 college football bowl season wraps up in style on Saturday, as the Buffalo Bulls face off against the Liberty Flames in the Bahamas Bowl. This MAC vs Conference USA clash at Thomas Robinson National Stadium in Nassau serves as the last chance for college football bettors to get in on the action before the CFP semi-finals.

The game will kick off at 11:a.m. ET on ESPN2, and it promises an exciting matchup in a tropical setting. Buffalo enters as 3.5-point favorites after some line movement, with both teams boasting strong records – the Bulls at 8-4 and the Flames at 8-3.

Here is a look at our Buffalo vs Liberty prediction for Saturday.

Buffalo vs Liberty Prediction

Buffalo rolls into Nassau on an impressive four-game November winning streak, although those victories came against some of the MAC’s weaker teams. Still, the Bulls have momentum on their side and a roster that remains largely intact for this bowl game.

On the other hand, Liberty faces uncertainty at the quarterback position after starter Kaidon Salter transferred to Colorado. The Flames will turn to inexperienced Ryan Burger, who has attempted just seven passes this season.

Liberty’s QB change could spell trouble against a Buffalo defense anchored by the nation’s leading tackler, Shaun Dolac (159 tackles), and his partner in crime, Red Murdock (143 tackles).

All-American linebacker Shaun Dolac will cap his stellar UB career in the Bahamas Bowl on Saturday.#BowlingBulls pic.twitter.com/Hvt55xRmV1

— UB Football (@UBFootball) January 3, 2025

Under center, the Bulls have gotten solid production from C.J. Ogbonna, who’s put up 2,244 yards and 19 touchdowns through the air. Running back Al-Jay Henderson (959 rushing yards) and receiver Victor Snow (610 receiving yards) provide balance.

Liberty’s strength lies in its rushing attack, led by Quinton Cooley (1,254 yards, 13 TDs). However, Cooley is expected to sit out this game, leaving the Flames without their top two offensive weapons.

Given Buffalo’s roster stability and Liberty’s key absences, my Bahamas Bowl prediction is for the Bulls to cover the 3-point spread. Buffalo’s 3-0 record in their last three bowl appearances and Liberty’s 3-8 ATS mark this season further bolster my confidence in this pick.

Saturday CFB Pick:

Updated Buffalo vs Liberty Odds

The betting line for this Bahamas Bowl matchup has seen significant movement. Buffalo opened as 2.5-point underdogs but are now favored by 3.5 points. The moneyline has the Bulls at -185 and the Flames at +155. The over/under is set at 50.5 points.

The current odds suggest about a 60% chance of Buffalo winning the game. It’s worth noting that the Bulls have gone 7-5 against the spread this season, and seven of their last eight games have gone over the total.

Interestingly, 86% of the spread money is on Buffalo, but they’ve only received 52% of the bets, indicating sharp action on the Bulls.

Odds as of January 4, 2025, at ESPN Sportsbook. Register with the ESPN Bet promo code to place a wager on the Bahamas Bowl.

Notable Opt-Outs

Perhaps the most significant storyline heading into this Bahamas Bowl is the contrasting opt-out situations for these two teams. While Buffalo’s roster remains mostly unscathed, Liberty has been hit hard by key departures.

As mentioned, starting quarterback Kaidon Salter transferred to Colorado, and leading rusher Quinton Cooley (1,254 yards, 13 TDs) is expected to sit out. The Flames are also missing at least three starting offensive linemen.

QB Kaidon Salter has Committed to Colorado! #SkoBuffs

6’1 200 JR.
5,887 YDS| 56 TDS| 21 RUSH TDS pic.twitter.com/uAJ4qXROMk

— GUCCE🦬🐦‍⬛ (@gucceCU) December 18, 2024

This leaves Liberty handing the keys to the unproven Ryan Burger at quarterback. The App State transfer will be making his first start since the 2023 season opener. While the Flames still have some capable weapons in the running game, like Billy Lucas (5.53 yards per carry), the offensive line concerns are real.

Buffalo, meanwhile, should have All-American linebacker Shaun Dolac and most of their key contributors available. This disparity in roster strength adds confidence to my pick of the Bulls covering the spread.

When you break it all down, this one likely comes down to which team has the most intact roster, and Buffalo appears to hold a significant advantage.

The Bulls’ stability, combined with their current form and Liberty’s question marks, make them my best bet in the Bahamas Bowl odds. Look for Buffalo to finish off the 2024-25 bowl season with a convincing victory over the shorthanded Flames.