Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Prediction, Pick & Odds

• Bowling Green is a 10-point favorite vs Arkansas State in the 68 Ventures Bowl
• The Falcons will be with0ut a handful of key players who have transferred
• Check the latest Arkansas State vs Bowling Green odds, spread and prediction below

It’s a Boxing Day clash in the south, as the Bowling Green Falcons (7-5, 6-2 MAC) take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5,  Sun Belt) in the 68 Ventures Bowl. Oddsmakers like the Falcons, but a deeper look at the roster leaves some room for an upset in the latest College Football odds.

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Odds

The Red Wolves are 10-point road underdogs, with a total set at 53.5 points.

The College Football public betting trends skew heavily to Bowling Green, with 73% of the betting public taking them to cover with 84% of the money.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9pm ET at Hancock Whitney Stadium, in Mobile, Alabama, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Odds as of December 26 at 2pm ET. Be sure to check out the best Caesars Sportsbook promos before placing a bet on any College Football Bowl games.

Bowling Green Roster Altered

The transfer portal has done a number of the Falcons ahead of their 68 Ventures Bowl.

Leading rusher Terion Stewart, who had 890 yards on a healthy 5.6 yard average and six touchdowns, has transferred out to Virginia Tech.

Jaison Patterson (4.4 average) and Jamal Johnson (7.6 average) looked poised to take over the running duties, but they’ll be hampered as all-conference tackle Alex Wollschlaeger transferred to Kentucky.

On top of that, the best player in this game, star tight end Harold Fannin Jr, might only be suiting up to reach a few milestones as he prepares for the NFL next year.

Harold Fannin Jr is simply him pic.twitter.com/HEMDY228wm

— Football Analysis (@FBallAnalysisYT) December 15, 2024

A sure lock to go pro, Fannin is short 11 yards to become the all-time single-season leader for yards by a tight end. One catch might be his day, as the risk to the draft stock seems absurdly high for this one record.

Those losses severely hamper an offensive unit that was fourth in the MAC in scoring at 26.8 points per game, and helped the Falcons rip off five wins in their final six to go bowling.

It doesn’t stop there: a defense that ranked Top 4 in the conference allowing 20.3 points per game will lose linebacker Joseph Sipp, who’s transferring to Kansas.

Red Wolves Can Stay Close

Arkansas State finished the year winning four of its final six, scoring 27 or more points in five of those games, looking far better offensively than the unit that was ranked 11th in the Sun Belt, averaging 24.8 points per game.

The Red Wolves finished 68th in the nation with 227.1 passing years per game, led by pivot Jaylen Raynor, who threw for more than 2,500 yards and 14 interceptions.

He enters this contest coming off a 317-yard, one TD, one interception day in a 34-31 win over Central Arkansas.

Jaylen Raynor with the 35 yd TD pass to Courtney Jackson 🎯 pic.twitter.com/MJJqMO0u7O

— Arkansas State Football (@AStateFB) November 30, 2024

Also look for their running attack to roam a little more freely without Sipp at LB.  Zak Wallace for 622 yards and a team-best 10 touchdowns, while Ja’Quez Cross ran for 600 yards on a nice 5.6 yard average.

Defensively, we’ll see if the Red Wolves can take advantage of those BG losses. They are currently 129th in the nation allowing 461.6 yards per game, while ranking 132nd in rush yards allowed at 227.2 per contest.

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Prediction

Bowling Green isn’t the same team if Fannin Jr isn’t gravitationally pulling defenses toward him, and letting the others eat. Wollschlaeger isn’t protecting his pivot and setting up run lanes for Stewart.

Quarterback Conor Bazelak had a good year, throwing for 2,654 yards and 15 TD’s, but the next four top pass catchers after Fannin Jr had 108 grabs, just eight more than the star tight end, with Malcolm Johnson’s 47 catches, 500 yards and two scores all second to Fannin Jr.

Arkansas State’s defense is poor, but it’s not as exploitable without the Falcons’ top guns available.

While it doesn’t drop down to slugfest levels, offense will be harder to come by, and so it should be closer than expected.

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Pick:

• Arkansas State +10 (-110)