10/1 FA Cup Acca

The bookies have got this as a very evenly matched contest, despite the disparity in divisions.

I was drawn to Exeter right away, due to the absolute carnage that’s ensued in their recent matches. BTTS and over 2.5 have landed in 7 straight games for The Grecians, and notably they recently trailed 4-1 at half-time to Crawley yet came back to salvage a 4-4 draw.

They’ve conceded back to back stoppage time goals, to condemn them to defeat. Even more fascinating is that both were scored by the same player, Aaron Morley, who returned to Bolton from Wycombe after scoring a late winner for them, only to go straight into the squad to again face Exeter; to repeat the trick. Football really is remarkable sometimes.

Oxford have hit a healthy patch of form, winning 3 of their last 4. I’ve edged the overs here, rather than BTTS, on that basis as if Oxford really get the hammer down and show the quality they do possess, then they could cover the line themselves.

Ruben Rodrigues has looked back to his brilliant best in recent weeks, and it’s no surprise that this good run has gone along with that. When he’s on it, he’s such an influential player who can really run a game.

With these two sides sitting 14th in League One, and 17th in the Championship, respectively, a cup run would be big for whoever can make it happen. I expect an open game here.

Norwich seem to be finding some form again after what was a pretty dismal start to December. That’s what the festive period can do for a team needing to gather some momentum.

They’ve pieced together a 4 game unbeaten run, 3 of those games wins, including a dramatic turnaround last time out against Coventry. Admittedly the fixture list was kind to them but even in the 2 previous games they still showed fight, managing to breach some of the best defences in the division in both Burnley and Sunderland.

That goalscoring fire seems to be back at Carrow Road, and that’s with Josh Sargent still absent and Borja Sainz not having scored since the 30th of November. That can’t go on for too much longer.

The league’s 2nd top scorers welcome Premier League opposition in Brighton who themselves are unbeaten in 4 games. Whilst they are also winless in that run, they’ve had a challenging last 2 with matchups against Arsenal and Aston Villa- 2 sides that ended last season in Champions League spots.

They’ve generated over 1.0 xG in all but 2 of their league fixtures this season and the cup could be a great springboard for them to rekindle some form.

With the attacking threats amongst their ranks coupled with the fact they concede 1.5 goals/90, I’d be confident both sides will force a breakthrough.

Sunderland are going incredibly well in the league, and up against a Stoke side that they played twice in December, I fancy them to carry that form into the cup as well.

Yes, Regis Le Bris’ side may well have lost to Stoke just 2 weeks ago, but they were away from home and it’s a game they should have taken points from. 2.08 xG to Stoke’s 0.90, 22 shots to Stoke’s 11, they’re the stronger side when you delve into all the underlying metrics.

Just 3 weeks prior to that however, Sunderland dispatched Stoke 2-1 at the Stadium of Light, and once again completely dominated the game with an xG of 2.47 to Stoke’s 0.79, and 25 shots to Stoke’s 11. That’s just 1 of many wins for Sunderland at home this term; they’re unbeaten as hosts in the Championship, winning 9 and drawing 4 whilst conceding just 8 goals in that run. That includes wins against both Burnley and Sheffield United, the 2 best defences in the league.

Sunderland may rotate, but if Stoke’s away form is anything to go by, they’ll have little chance here. They’ve lost 7 of their 12 away outings, but the real killer for them is that they’ve scored just 6 times on the road this season. Stoke are struggling to find their scoring touch, and against a Sunderland side that have made home a fortress this season, their attacking record simply isn’t going to cut it.

It’s been an up and down start for Frank Lampard at the helm of the Sky Blues, and this cup tie has thrown up a great opportunity for him to earn some credit in the bank with supporters, who were reeling after the sacking of Mark Robins.

BTTS has landed in 6 of the 9 matches that Lampard has taken charge of. They’ve been averaging 1.66 xG in his tenure, and have produced some very impressive metrics, only dropping below 1.0 xG on a single occasion.

There’s no doubt that this Cov side has the quality to hurt teams, and the signs are definitely there that Lampard can get a tune from these players.

Wednesday have been involved in some belting games recently. Recent fixtures have ended: 2-2. 4-2, 3-1 and 3-3.

Of the sides above Sheff Wed in the league, only Leeds and Middlesbrough have scored more goals. An impressive feat. However, only sides 20th and below have managed to ship more goals than them.

The Owls have averaged a massive 1.72 xG against, and given Cov’s recent numbers, I don’t think they’ll have many issues breaching this lacklustre defence. Josh Windass has netted 5 in his last 6 for Wednesday, and is in a real purple patch, perfect timing for this bet.