4/1 European AccA

Fiorentina are enjoying their best Serie A start since the era of Gabriel Batistuta. The team is led by veteran goalkeeper David De Gea and the rejuvenated Moise Kean, who is finally fulfilling the high expectations set for him. They head into Sunday’s fixture riding a six-game Serie A winning streak, which includes victories over AC Milan, a 5-1 demolition of Roma, and an emphatic 6-0 away win at Lecce. Fiorentina currently sit third in the league, just one point behind leaders Napoli, having suffered only one defeat in their opening 12 matches—a narrow 3-2 loss away to Atalanta, where xG metrics suggest they were unlucky not to come away with more.

Como, by contrast, are enduring a challenging return to Serie A following their second-place finish in Serie B last season. This is only their second Serie A campaign in the club’s history, and the struggles are evident. Como haven’t won a match since September and are currently 15th in the table, just one point above the relegation zone. They have yet to keep a clean sheet this season, and they hold the league’s second-worst defensive record, conceding an average of 1.9 goals per game.
Sunday’s clash features a red-hot Fiorentina side—averaging 3.2 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded per game over their last five matches—against a struggling Como team in dreadful form. @2.25 This selection offers exceptional value.

Despite enduring their worst-ever start to a Premier League season, United have shown signs of revival since Ten Hag’s departure, securing three wins in their last four matches. They now sit just four points behind strong title contenders Arsenal. United’s squad is brimming with talent, and it was clear that their struggles stemmed more from a lack of tactical cohesion than a lack of quality. With Ruben Amorim’s highly anticipated arrival just under a fortnight ago, he has had the entire international break to instil his ideas and bring much-needed structure to a team that has lacked it for years. The players will be eager to impress and make a strong start under their new manager.

While Ipswich earned a notable recent victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, they have struggled overall this season. They rank bottom of the league in both key underlying metrics. Offensively, Ipswich are the only team averaging less than 1 xG per game, with a figure of just 0.93. Defensively, the numbers are equally poor, as they also sit last for xGC, conceding an average of 2.24 xGC per game.

United will approach Sunday’s clash with confidence, and their squad’s quality makes them clear favourites. @1.61, this selection offers excellent value, as it doesn’t fully account for the transformative impact Amorim’s arrival could have on a talented team that Ten Hag was never able to get the best out of.

Following last season’s playoff final defeat, Leeds United currently sit third in the Championship. With a squad packed with attacking talent, it’s no surprise they boast the second-best attacking record in the league. Despite scoring 24 goals in their first 15 matches, Leeds are underperforming their xG metrics by 1.1, highlighting their potential to deliver even more. Their attacking style not only yields goals but also results in a high number of corners. Leeds average 6.9 corners per game, the second-highest in the division behind only Coventry, and they’ve consistently won 5 or more corners in each of their last six matches.

From a defensive perspective, Swansea have been particularly vulnerable in this area. They’ve conceded 5 or more corners in 13 of their 15 matches this season. The only exceptions were against Oxford United and Preston, who rank 21st and 23rd in the Championship for corners per game, averaging just 4.27 and 3.0, respectively which is a big contrast to Leeds’ 6.9 per game.

Arne Slot has enjoyed a near-perfect start to his Liverpool tenure. Winning 13 of their 15 competitive fixtures this season, Liverpool currently sit five points clear at the top of the Premier League and two points ahead clear at the top of the UCL. The Reds rank third in the Premier League for xG, averaging 1.87 per game, and fourth for goals scored, with an average of 1.9 per game. They’ve scored two or more goals in each of their last five matches and have only failed to reach that mark on two occasions in their 11 league games so far.

Southampton, last season’s playoff winners, have struggled defensively. They rank fourth-last for goals conceded per game (1.9) and have been fortunate not to concede more. They rank second-last for xGC, allowing 2.09 xG per game on average. The Saints have managed just one clean sheet this season, which came against Everton who failed to score despite accumulating 1.56 xG . Notably, 33% of the goals Southampton have conceded have come from opposition right wingers, highlighting a significant defensive weakness. With arguably the Premier League’s best ever right winger in Mohamed Salah, who has recorded 14 G+A across his first 11 Premier League games this season, Liverpool are perfectly positioned to exploit this vulnerability.

@1.25, this selection offers excellent value, given Liverpool’s form and Southampton’s defensive weaknesses.