Week 13 College Football Picks Against the Spread

• Check out my Week 13 college football picks against the spread for Saturday’s action
• We remain profitable at 24-15 on CFB ATS picks this season
• Breaking down three underdogs offering betting value in Week 13 CFB action

Coming off a tough 0-3 weekend that included a crushing missed pass interference call that would’ve given Nebraska the cover, we’re looking to bounce back with three underdog plays for Week 13. Sometimes, the breaks don’t go your way, but we remain profitable on the season and have identified some solid value for Saturday’s slate.

My Week 13 college football picks against the spread focus on three underdogs in favorable spots. The numbers point to a disciplined service academy, a Big Ten team facing a struggling offense, and a Cincinnati squad that matches up better than the spread suggests.

Let’s examine why these teams offer value in the Week 13 CFB betting market.

Week 13 CFB ATS Picks

Three games stand out from an ATS perspective for Saturday’s college football slate. Let’s break down the analysis behind my Week 13 CFB spread picks.

Army vs Notre Dame Odds

All odds as of November 23rd at ESPN Sportsbook. Check out the top college football betting sites for more CFB odds and picks against the spread.

Pick #1: Army (+14.5) (vs Notre Dame)

Kicking off my Week 13 college football picks against the spread with a service academy getting too many points. The Black Knights enter Saturday’s matchup at Yankee Stadium with the nation’s most suffocating defense, allowing just 10.33 points per game.

Army’s disciplined approach has led to only four turnovers all season, while their methodical triple-option attack consistently controls the clock and limits opposing possessions.

Army. Triple Option. Touchdown. Cannons. Vintage.@ArmyWP_Football pic.twitter.com/oAZ8l9Gfyv

— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) September 21, 2024

The Black Knights’ defense has been particularly dominant against the run, surrendering only 82.56 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. This defensive prowess, combined with their ball-control offense, creates a perfect formula for keeping games close against more talented opponents.

The betting trends strongly support Army in this spot. They lead the nation with an 81.5% cover rate and are a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road this season. Even more impressive, they’ve won all nine games by double digits, showing their ability to execute their game plan consistently.

The total sitting at just 44.5 points makes every point even more valuable in this matchup. With Army’s defense and controlled tempo, they should be able to frustrate Notre Dame’s offense and keep this within the number at Yankee Stadium.

Northwestern vs Michigan Odds

Pick #2: Northwestern +10.5 (at Michigan)

Moving to my second Week 13 college football ATS pick, where Michigan’s offensive struggles make them hard to trust laying double digits. The Wolverines rank 129th in total offense and have lost four of their last five conference games, making this spread feel inflated against an improving Northwestern team.

The sharp money has been telling, driving this line down from 13.5. Michigan’s averaging just 17 points in their last five games while desperately fighting for bowl eligibility. That’s not the profile of a team you want to lay points with, especially against a solid defensive opponent.

Four of the last seven meetings between these teams have been one-score games, and the current situation sets up well for another close contest. Northwestern’s defense has shown steady improvement, while Michigan’s offense has shown no signs of solving their issues.

The Wildcats should keep this competitive throughout, especially given Michigan’s recent track record of failing to cover conference games. When you’re getting double digits with a team that can play defense against an offense this limited, you have to take a serious look.

Cincinnati vs Kansas State Odds

Pick #3: Cincinnati +8.5 (at Kansas State)

Wrapping up my Week 13 college football predictions against the spread with another live underdog. Cincinnati brings an underrated offense into this matchup, averaging 29.3 points per game (52nd nationally) and generating over 400 yards of total offense.

Cincy’s ground game has been particularly effective, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and helping them control tempo on the road.

Sorsby was GONE! 💨@GoBearcatsFB isn’t going anywhere! 💪 pic.twitter.com/6P1ypSFxCE

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 17, 2024

The advanced metrics suggest this spread is inflated. Cincinnati leads the nation in fourth-down conversion percentage and maintains an impressive +1.3 turnover margin per game. These are exactly the kind of stats you want to see from a road underdog.

My model aligns with the value on Cincinnati, projecting a final score around Kansas State 28, Cincinnati 22. Getting 8.5 points with a team that’s been competitive in most games and needs one more win for bowl eligibility presents solid value.

Their 4-5-1 ATS record might not jump off the page, but the Bearcats have consistently kept games closer than oddsmakers expect. With their balanced offensive attack and ability to control possession, they should stay within the number in Manhattan.

Brady’s 2024 CFB ATS Picks Record: 24-15 (Last Week: 0-3)