Week 14 College Football Picks Against the Spread (Rivalry Week)

• Check out my Week 14 college football betting predictions against the spread for Rivalry Week action
• Our CFB picks remain profitable at 24-18 heading into rivalry weekend
• We break down our best CFB ATS picks for Week 14’s rivalry week below

Coming off a tough 0-3 weekend in our college football spread predictions, we’re looking to bounce back with three underdog plays for rivalry week. Despite the setback, we’re still sitting at 24-18 on our college football picks against the spread this season. History shows that rivalry games frequently produce unexpected results, especially when it comes to covering the number.

My Week 14 college football selections against the spread focus on three underdogs in favorable spots. With challenging late November weather expected across the country, we’re targeting teams with strong ground games and proven track records in rivalry situations. The numbers point to a Michigan team that’s dominated this rivalry recently, a Nebraska squad finding its rushing identity, and a Fresno State team that’s historically played well at the Rose Bowl.

Let’s examine why these teams offer spread betting value during college football’s rivalry week.

Week 14 CFB ATS Picks (Rivalry Week)

Three rivalry matchups have caught my eye from a betting perspective for Saturday’s loaded slate. Let’s dive into the analysis behind my Week 14 college football spread selections.

Michigan vs Ohio State Odds

All odds as of November 26th at ESPN Bet. Check out the top college football betting sites for more CFB odds and rivalry week predictions.

Pick #1: Michigan (+21) (at Ohio State)

I’m kicking off my Week 14 college football picks with a hefty underdog that’s dominated this rivalry for three straight years. While Michigan faces some unprecedented circumstances, the numbers tell me they can keep this within three touchdowns.

The weather forecast is screaming Michigan football – temperatures in the high teens with 20 mph wind gusts. These conditions should favor their ground-heavy attack that ranks 26th nationally in rush play percentage. Their defense has been absolutely lights out, surrendering just 20.8 points per game.

The Michigan defense has allowed only 539 total yards in its last 10 quarters.#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/EwhPS1cOVZ

— Clayton Sayfie (@CSayf23) November 24, 2024

The betting market is backing this play, with Michigan drawing 69% of tickets and 78% of the money despite the large spread. Ohio State’s likely playoff berth regardless of the outcome could impact their urgency level. Their offensive line has shown some cracks against elite defensive fronts, similar to what they’ll face Saturday.

Historical trends back the underdog here – the last five meetings have been decided by an average margin of 15.2 points, with no game being decided by more than 20. Even in years with clear talent gaps, this rivalry tends to keep things tighter than expected.

Nebraska vs Iowa Odds

Pick #2: Nebraska +5.5 (at Iowa)

For my second Week 14 college football betting pick, I’m rolling with a Nebraska team that’s finally found its identity in the ground game. Their impressive 44-25 dismantling of Wisconsin showcased an offense hitting its stride at the perfect time, piling up 473 total yards against a typically stout Badgers defense.

W. pic.twitter.com/oU0uR7O6wa

— Nebraska Football (@HuskerFootball) November 23, 2024

Nebraska’s defense has been quietly dominant against the run, ranking 18th nationally while allowing just 110.9 yards per game. This sets up perfectly against an Iowa offense that’s become painfully one-dimensional with third-string quarterback Jackson Stratton managing just 76 passing yards against Maryland.

The numbers don’t lie – the Cornhuskers are 5-1 when averaging north of 4.3 yards per carry this season. With the mercury dropping to 24 degrees at kickoff in Iowa City, their power running attack should find plenty of lanes. Dylan Raiola’s recent emergence adds another wrinkle that Iowa’s defense will need to respect.

Fresno State vs UCLA Odds

Pick #3: Fresno State +8.5 (at UCLA)

I’m wrapping up my Week 14 college football predictions with another live dog that knows how to win at the Rose Bowl. Fresno State has owned this matchup recently, winning their last four against UCLA, including three straight in Pasadena. Their dramatic last-minute touchdown in 2021 showed exactly why they’re so dangerous in this spot.

The Bulldogs’ rushing attack has been a problem for opponents, ranking fourth-best among Non-Power Conference teams. They’re an impressive 9-2 when breaking three or more explosive runs and 5-1 when topping one hundred yards on the ground. Running back Bryson Donelson is coming in hot after gashing Colorado State for 150 yards.

The sharp money has already pushed this line down from +9.5 to +8.5, and I’m not surprised. With UCLA’s offense sputtering at 18.3 points per game and no postseason implications in play, watch for Fresno State’s balanced attack (27.8 points per game) to keep this one within the number.

Brady’s 2024 CFB ATS Picks Record: 24-18 (Last Week: 0-3)