USC vs UCLA Prediction, Pick & Odds for Saturday Night Football

• We’ve made our USC vs UCLA prediction for Saturday night rivalry game
• The Trojans are 4.5-point road favorites against the improving Bruins
• Read below for USC vs UCLA odds, prediction and best bet

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USC (5-5, 3-5 Big Ten) makes the short trip to Pasadena to face UCLA (4-6, 3-5 Big Ten) in their annual crosstown rivalry game at the Rose Bowl on Saturday night. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on NBC, with the Trojans coming in as 4.5-point road favorites.

Here is a look at our USC vs UCLA prediction and odds for Saturday night college football.

USC vs UCLA Odds

USC is laying 4.5 points, with a 64.3% implied probability to win outright. The underdog Bruins have a 40.7% chance of pulling off the upset.

The odds reflect USC’s talent edge and recent QB change, but also factor in UCLA’s improved play and home-field advantage. The over/under is set at 51.5 points, hinting at a potentially high-scoring affair.

 

Odds as of November 23, 2024, at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim the Caesars promo code to bet on Saturday Night CFB.

Trojans Betting Analysis

USC’s offense has been putting up impressive numbers, averaging 438.1 yards and 30.3 points per game. The recent switch to QB Jayden Maiava has provided a spark, as the UNLV transfer threw for 259 yards and three TDs in a 28-20 win over Nebraska last week.

Woody Marks has been an absolute beast on the ground, already over 1,000 yards and averaging nearly six yards every time he touches the ball. When Maiava needs to throw, he’s got some serious weapons in Duce Robinson and Zachariah Branch.

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Congratulations to Woody Marks on becoming the first #USC running back with a 1,000-yard rushing season since Ronald Jones II in 2017! pic.twitter.com/bY6Srv9UY1

— Shotgun Spratling (@ShotgunSpr) November 17, 2024

However, the Trojans’ defense has struggled at times, surrendering 364.7 yards and 22 points per game. They’ve been particularly vulnerable against the pass, allowing 232.7 yards per contest through the air. USC will need to contain UCLA’s improving offense and establish their ground game early to control the clock and keep their defense fresh.

USC’s season has truly been a roller coaster. They looked great beating LSU to start the year and handled Rutgers easily, but losses to Washington, Maryland, and Penn State have shown they’re far from perfect.

Bruins Betting Analysis

UCLA’s offense has been steadily improving throughout the season despite modest averages of 320.6 yards and 18.8 points per game. QB Ethan Garbers has found his rhythm, tossing multiple TDs in each of the last four games. RB T.J.

T.J. Harden is starting to look like the back we thought he could be, including a recent monster 125-yard game against Iowa. And how about Moliki Matavao? The tight end has become Garbers’ go-to guy with 31 grabs for 371 yards.

The Bruins’ defense, meanwhile, is legit, especially against the run. They’re only giving up 100.6 yards per game on the ground, which could be huge against USC’s run-heavy attack. The secondary’s been a bit shaky, though, allowing 245.7 through the air.

After that rough 1-5 start, UCLA’s turned things around big time, winning three of four including some impressive wins over Nebraska and Iowa. Their only L in that stretch? A road game against Washington that was closer than most expected.

USC vs UCLA Prediction

USC might have more star power, but something about this UCLA team feels different lately. The Bruins’ nasty run defense is exactly what you need against a USC team that wants to pound the rock.

The smart money has been hammering UCLA all week – the early line opened at USC -7 and has dropped significantly. My model has USC winning by just 2.5 on average. That tells me there’s value with the home dog.

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No guts, no glory — the war for our city wages on…

This is the Battle of Los Angeles. 🍿📼✌️ pic.twitter.com/8e6BAE2WH9

— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) November 23, 2024

If Garbers keeps playing smart football and that UCLA defense can contain Marks, watch out. The Bruins aren’t just looking to keep it close – they’re going for the upset win over their rivals.

UCLA’s shown they can hang with anyone lately, and that run defense is no joke. They’re only allowing 3.3 yards per carry, which could force USC to get out of their comfort zone.

• The Pick: UCLA +4.5 (-110)

The Bruins are playing their best ball right now, they’ve got the home-field advantage, and they match up really well with USC. Take the points with UCLA – they might not just cover, they might win this thing outright in front of what should be an awesome Rose Bowl crowd.