Swansea vs Cardiff Stats Pack, Bet Builder Tips and Predictions

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match-bet”>Leg 1: Swansea corner match bet

Results are always tough to call in derbies, but especially so this one. Swansea’s underlying numbers suggesting they are overperforming, and Cardiff’s suggesting they are underperforming. Either side could see their luck turn at any moment, so we’ll be staying away from trying to back a winner here.

Instead, the corner market looks to offer solid value. Swansea averaged 5.30 corners per game last season, and allowed just 5.04 corners per game, with only six sides allowing fewer over the course of the season.

Cardiff meanwhile averaged just 4.30 corners per game, the third-lowest of any Championship side in 2023/24. They allowed an average of 5.22 corners per game, which gives them an average corner differential of -0.92 per game. Only seven Championship sides had a worse record last season, and three of those were relegated to League One.

Swansea have now won the corner battle in 15 of their last 20 Championship games, whilst the visiting Bluebirds had fewer corners than their opponents in seven of their last nine Championship games in 2023/24. It would be no surprise to see Swansea come out on top again here.

Leg 2: Over 1.5 Swansea cards

Swansea have seen two or more cards in four of their last five South Wales derbies, and five of their last seven.

Three of their last four home derbies have seen the Swans pick up at least two cards, averaging 2.25 cards per game in such games at the Swansea.com Stadium since 2020/21. They averaged 2.09 cards per game in the Championship last term and come into this game having picked up two or more cards in 20 of their last 29 league fixtures.

Cardiff meanwhile have seen their opponents pick up two bookings in each of their first two league games this season, including their 5-0 loss away to Burnley last time out. They ended last season with their opposition having seen two or more cards in five of their last six league games, so there is every chance that Swansea will hit this line here today.

The referee is Oliver Langford, who dished out six cards in his first Championship game of the season and averages 3.32 cards per game in this division. Langford has taken charge of 13 Swansea games, across which the Swans have picked up 2.62 cards on average.

Leg 3: Ronald to have 1+ shots on target

Swansea’s right-winger Ronald looked a smart signing after being picked up from Estrela in Portugal last January.

He was a slow starter in terms of shots on target, but by the end of the season had really gathered some momentum in this regard, ending the campaign with a shot on target in three of his last four starts. Ronald averaged 0.63 shots on target per 90 in the Championship last season despite opening his Swansea account with no shots on target in seven of his first 10 starts for the club.

He has got off to a much faster start this time around, with three shots on target from his first two Swansea starts in 2024/25, with two against Gillingham in the EFL Cup and one against Preston in his first league start of the season last weekend.

He could have extra joy here with Calum Chambers possibly stepping out to right-back if Callum O’Dowda is not fit to start here, whilst he has played out wide before, Chambers is certainly more comfortable centrally. Even if O’Dowda does start however, his desire to get forward should leave space in behind for Ronald to exploit.

LEG 4: Manolis Siopis to commit 1+ fouls

This should be a good game to back fouls, as most derbies tend to be. Sadly there are few fouls won markets to be found on Championship games, as the stats point to there being plenty of fantastic options here.

Instead, it makes sense to back a player to foul who is up against the players likeliest to win fouls, which leads us to Manolis Siopis. Only Aaron Ramsey betters Siopis’ two fouls for the Bluebirds so far this season, and there are two very good reasons to expect this tally to increase here.

He will be up against Goncalo Franco and Ollie Cooper, who have won an enormous 12 fouls between them across Swansea’s opening two fixtures, with both players winning six fouls each. This is no fluke, especially for Cooper, who won 4.26 fouls per 90 in the Championship last season. Franco also has a strong previous record, winning 2.05 fouls per 90 for Moreirense in the Portuguese Primeira Liga last season.

With both Cooper and Franco winning three fouls each in both of Swansea’s two league games this season, it is hard to imagine Siopis making it through 90 minutes without fouling at least once here.

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