Opening Penn State vs Notre Dame Odds & Early Prediction

• Notre Dame and Penn State set for epic CFP semifinal clash in the Orange Bowl
• Opening Notre Dame vs Penn State odds favor the Fighting Irish by a slim margin in Miami
• Read below for Penn State vs Notre Dame odds, spread and early prediction

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It’s a classic matchup between two of college football’s most storied programs. Notre Dame and Penn State will battle in the CFP semifinal at the Orange Bowl after the Fighting Irish defeated Georgia 20-10 in the Sugar Bowl and the Nittany Lions dominated Boise State 31-14 in the Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal.

Opening Penn State vs Notre Dame odds hit the board moments after the Fighting Irish sealed their victory over Georgia on Thursday. This game will kickoff on January 9th at 7:30pm ET on ESPN.

Let’s take a look at the opening Notre Dame vs Penn State odds and provide our early Orange Bowl prediction.

Opening Notre Dame vs Penn State Odds

The early betting line for the Orange Bowl has Notre Dame as a slight 1.5-point favorite, giving Marcus Freeman’s squad a 54% implied probability to advance to the national championship game.

The Fighting Irish earned the No. 7 seed in the CFP Playoff bracket and took down Indiana and Georgia to reach the semis. Meanwhile, No. 6 seed Penn State cruised past SMU and Boise State.

 

Odds as of January 2, 2025, at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Nittany Lions Rolling into Miami

Penn State enters this semifinal showdown riding a wave of momentum after dominant wins over SMU (38-10) and Boise State (31-14) in the playoff. The Nittany Lions’ stifling defense has been the story, holding those high-powered offenses to just 24 total points.

Against Boise State, PSU completely shut down star RB Ashton Jeanty, limiting the Heisman finalist to 104 yards rushing – his second-lowest output of the season. LB Abdul Carter and the defensive line controlled the trenches, while CB Cam Miller helped hold Broncos QB Maddux Madsen to 209 passing yards.

Offensively, QB Drew Allar has taken his game to another level in the playoffs. The talented signal-caller threw for 3 TDs against Boise State, with TE Tyler Warren emerging as his go-to target in the red zone. RBs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton have also been stellar, each topping 1,000 rushing yards on the season.

Penn State will need another strong defensive effort to slow down a Notre Dame offense that just put up 20 points on a stout Georgia defense. The Irish have playmakers in QB Riley Leonard and RB Jeremiyah Love.

Carter’s Health Looms Large for PSU

While Penn State is firing on all cylinders heading into the Orange Bowl, the health of star defensive end Abdul Carter is a major question mark. The unanimous All-American and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year exited the Fiesta Bowl win over Boise State in the second quarter with an undisclosed left arm injury and did not return.

Head coach James Franklin said Carter will “do everything in his power to try to get back” for the semifinals, but his status remains unclear. Losing the nation’s leader in sacks (11) would be a massive blow to Penn State’s fearsome front seven.

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THE STATUS of ABDUL CARTER: On ESPN’s College GameDay, James Franklin said of the Penn Stare edge rusher injured vs. Boise State: “Abdul is going to do everything in his power to try to get back” for the Orange Bowl on Jan. 9. “If he’s able to go, I know he’ll go.” pic.twitter.com/gOWmoowtBM

— Mike Poorman (@PSUPoorman) January 1, 2025

Carter posted a cryptic photo on social media of Darth Vader from Star Wars in a “bacta tank” that aided his recovery, hinting that he’s doing everything possible to suit up against Notre Dame. The 6’3″, 252-pound projected top-10 NFL Draft pick is an irreplaceable talent.

If Carter can’t go or is limited, Penn State will lean even more on LBs Curtis Jacobs and Kobe King to generate pressure. The secondary, led by CB Kalen King, will also need to elevate its play against Notre Dame’s explosive passing attack.

Irish Survive and Advance

Notre Dame is heading to the Orange Bowl after a thrilling 20-10 Sugar Bowl victory over Georgia. The Irish jumped out to an early lead and held on late to secure their spot in the semifinals. Marcus Freeman’s team was actually outgained 294-213 by the Bulldogs in total yardage.

QB Riley Leonard continued his strong play, completing 14 of 23 passes and using his legs to extend drives (66 rush yds). RB Jeremiyah Love was mostly bottled up, but his speed remains a constant threat to break a big run.

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Riley Leonard finds Beaux Collins for the touchdown!

Notre Dame leads 13-3. #SugarBowl pic.twitter.com/SkX6dB8Nm7

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) January 2, 2025

Notre Dame’s opportunistic defense forced two key Georgia fumbles, something they’ve done all season. They also sacked Gunner Stockton four times. Against Penn State, they’ll aim to fluster QB Drew Allar into mistakes and limit big plays to TE Tyler Warren.

While the Irish didn’t light up the scoreboard vs Georgia, their ability to control the clock with the run game and hit explosive pass plays when needed makes them dangerous. They’ll need to establish the ground attack early against Penn State’s stout defensive front.

Early Penn State vs Notre Dame Prediction

This projects as a hard-hitting defensive battle between two teams that pride themselves on running the ball and stopping the run. Both defenses are littered with future NFL talent, especially along the defensive lines and at linebacker.

Penn State’s secondary looked vulnerable at times against Boise State, allowing a few chunk pass plays. They’ll need to shore that up against Leonard and Notre Dame’s speedy receivers like Jordan Faison and Beaux Collins.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame must find a way to neutralize Penn State’s pass rush, with or without Carter. The Irish O-line just faced a stiff test against Georgia and will need to elevate their play again.

Points could come at a premium in this one. Notre Dame is battle-tested after going through the SEC’s best. But Penn State’s defense is playing at an elite level right now.

In a game with two stellar defenses and strong rushing attacks, the under is my best early value. Don’t be surprised if this is a slugfest where the first team to 20 points comes out on top.

• Early Orange Bowl Pick: Under 47.5 (-110)