Brighton vs Southampton Stats Pack, Bet Builder Tips and Predictions

We have put together a 7/1 Brighton vs Southampton Bet Builder for Friday Night’s Premier League fixture.

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Leg 1: Over 2.5 Southampton Cards

Southampton are one of the most ill-disciplined teams in the Premier League, with only Chelsea (45) picking up more than their 40 cards in 12 league matches this season.

That works out to an average of 3.33 cards per game for the Saints, who have seen at least three cards in 10 of their 12 league games, and in each of their last eight Premier League fixtures. The Saints commit 11.8 fouls per game, which is only the seventh-most in the league, but their desire to play out from the back puts serious pressure on their defence, which leads to some last-ditch tackles and tactical fouls which boost their card count.

Brighton draw 11.3 fouls per game, and their opponents have averaged 2.75 yellow cards per game so far this season. Teams facing the Seagulls have also seen 0.25 red cards per game, making the opposition’s total card per game average 3.0.

Referee Rob Jones has awarded 5.13 bookings per game in the league this season. He has not officiated for Southampton, but he did award four cards to Brighton’s opponents in his one Seagulls game in 2024/25.

Leg 2: Kaoru Mitoma To Have 1+ Shots On Target

Kaoru Mitoma has not been getting much attention, thanks to the eight goal involvements of Danny Welbeck and six of Joao Pedro. However, he still has two goals and two assists from his 11 starts and remains a crucial part of the Seagulls’ attacking unit.

The Japan international is averaging 0.89 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League this season, almost bang on his average from last season of 0.91. That number has only been going up of late, with Mitoma having had at least one shot on target in five of his last six league games.

The one game in this run in which Mitoma failed to test the keeper was in Liverpool’s 2-1 defeat away to Liverpool, but he has managed to hit the target in games against Tottenham, Newcastle, and Man City.

He has featured against a newly promoted side just once this season, notching two shots on target when facing Ipswich. Mitoma has also had a shot on target in all three of his starts against sides currently in the bottom five.

Leg 3: Taylor Harwood-bellis To Have 1+ Shots

Despite establishing himself as one of Southampton’s top goal threats, having scored four goals for club and country already this season, the bookies have still not caught up to what Taylor Harwood-Bellis offers.

The newly capped England international has now had at least one shot on target in nine of his last 11 games for club and country in all competitions, notching two shots in four of these nine games. He scored on his England debut, bagging a headed goal off the bench in their 5-0 win over Ireland earlier this month.

Harwood-Bellis has failed to have a shot just twice in any game since September 17^th, both of which came against the Premier League’s top two, Man City and Liverpool. He averages 0.85 shots per 90 in the Premier League for the season, but across his last eight games (when the shot streak began) he is averaging just over a shot per game, at 1.13 per 90.

With at least one shot in six of his last eight league starts, there is every chance Harwood-Bellis will notch at least one against a Brighton side who concede 5.08 corners per game.

Leg 4: Joel Veltman tO bE fOULED 2+ tiMES

Joel Veltman is the third-most fouled player in the Premier League this season, picking up 27 fouls in his 11 league starts, for an average of 2.55 fouls drawn per 90. This is no anomaly either, as Veltman has won over a foul per game in the Premier League every season since joining Brighton. He also won 2.39 fouls per 90 last season.

The Dutchman has won two or more fouls in eight of his 11 Premier League starts, only failing to do so in games against Nottingham Forest, Tottenham, and Wolves. Veltman has won two or more in four of his last five starts. Across the season he has won three or more fouls in six of his 11 starts.

His one start against a newly promoted side this season saw him win five fouls at the Amex against Ipswich. He will be up against Adam Armstrong here, who averages 1.36 fouls per 90 in the Premier League, and has committed two fouls in three straight league starts. Ryan Manning will be the left wing-back, and he commits 1.35 fouls per 90, fouling at least once in four of his five league starts.

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