Aston Villa vs Arsenal Stats Pack, Bet Builder Tips and Predictions

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Leg 1: Aston Villa GK to make 4+ saves

Arsenal looked good value for their win over Wolves at the weekend, the Gunners having six shots on target and forcing Jose Sa into four saves in that game. 

Villa looked a little uncomfortable on their way to a 2-1 road win at West Ham, a game in which they conceded 2.3 xG, so Arsenal should have plenty of chances here.

Last season, goalkeepers facing Arsenal had to deal with 5.76 shots on target per 90, the third-highest rate in the league, and that led to them making 3.50 saves per 90. Across their last nine Premier League games, goalkeepers facing Arsenal have made four or more saves on seven occasions.

Emi Martinez made four saves as Villa won at the Emirates during this run and was forced into three saves in their clash at Villa Park earlier in the season, despite this being one of Arsenal’s worst performances all season.

Villa were generally good defensively last season but began to struggle in the second half of the campaign. Martinez was forced into at least four saves in six of his last eight starts in 2023/24.

The price is too good to turn down here, with this line looking very achievable.

match-cards”>Leg 2: Over 3.5 match cards

Aston Villa picked up the fourth-most cards of any Premier League side last season, averaging 2.47 per game. Arsenal were on the lower end of the spectrum, but still averaged 1.68 across the entire campaign.

These numbers picked up in the second half of the season for Arsenal, as they averaged 2.09 cards per game across the final 11 games of the season. They failed to pick up two or more cards just twice during this run.

Villa meanwhile saw multiple bookings dished out to their players in 27 of their 38 league games last season and had just four games in which no cards were shown.

Both meetings of these two sides last season saw this bet land, with six bookings brandished in the first game at Villa Park, and four during the game at the Emirates. Only in their games against Liverpool did Arsenal collect more bookings than the five they picked up across their two clashes with Aston Villa last season.

The referee here is Michael Oliver, who has shown 3.33 cards per game across his career and is averaging 4.17 cards per game in club football so far this season.

Leg 3: Leon Bailey to have 2+ shots

Bailey did not feature much across the two games with Arsenal last season, though he did have a shot on target in a 30 minute substitute appearance at the Emirates.

The Jamaica international had three shots last time out against West Ham and averaged an impressive 2.30 shots per 90 in the Premier League last season.

He has now taken at least two shots in four of his last five starts for the Villans and in 15 of his last 23 appearances for the club in all competitions.

He will start down the right here, up against Oleksandr Zinchenko, who is an obvious weak point in Arsenal’s defence. Should Bailey get 1v1 against the Ukraine international, he has the pace and skills to beat his man and get in a position to shoot.

Unai Emery’s side had 10 and 11 shots in their two games against Arsenal last season, and a similar total should be expected here, with Villa failing to reach double figures just five times in 38 league games last season. If they again reach a similar tally, it would be a surprise to see Bailey fail to hit this mark.

LEG 4: Youri Tielemans to be fouled 1+ times

The Belgium international won well over a foul per 90 last season, averaging 1.61 throughout the 2023/24 campaign. Tielemans started the season off as he ended the last, winning two fouls in Villa’s 2-1 win over West Ham.

He won at least one foul in 11 of his last 13 league appearances for Villa, including their game against Arsenal at the Emirates in April. Tielemans also won two fouls when these two sides met at Villa Park, despite only being on the pitch for 55 minutes.

The 27-year-old midfielder will be up against a combination of Martin Odegaard and Thomas Partey, who commit 0.87 and 1.14 fouls per game respectively, with Odegaard’s intense pressing likely to lead to at least one foul here, thanks to Tielemans impressive composure under pressure.

The Aston Villa man gets stuck in himself, committing 1.22 fouls per 90, and this could lead to some running battles between him, Odegaard and Partey, with both Arsenal men winning their fair share of fouls per 90, at 1.05 and 0.68 respectively.

All things considered, backing Tielemans to win at least one foul here looks a very solid option.

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