Alabama vs Auburn Prediction, Pick & H2H History

• The 93rd Iron Bowl features Auburn seeking bowl eligibility against No. 13 Alabama
• The latest Alabama vs Auburn odds favor the Crimson Tide by 11.5 points after opening at -15.5
• Read below for Alabama vs Auburn prediction, odds and betting analysis

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The Auburn Tigers (5-6, 2-5 SEC) head to Tuscaloosa for a pivotal Iron Bowl matchup against the No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3, 4-3 SEC) on Saturday, November 30. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium, with the game broadcast nationally on ABC.

Both teams have plenty to play for in this historic rivalry. Auburn needs a win to punch their bowl ticket, while Alabama is hanging onto those slim College Football Playoff hopes in Kalen DeBoer’s first season.

Alabama opened as a 15.5-point home favorite, but the line has since moved to Alabama -11.5, with the over/under set at 52 points, according to consensus odds.

Alabama vs Auburn Prediction

Don’t sleep on the Tigers in this one, folks. Auburn is coming off its most complete performance of the season, a wild 43-41 quadruple-overtime win over Texas A&M. The offense finally showed its full potential, with QB Payton Thorne throwing for 315 yards and RB Jarquez Hunter rumbling for 130 yards and three touchdowns.

Thorne’s dual-threat ability could be a game-changer against an Alabama defense that has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks. Last week, Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold gashed the Tide for 131 rushing yards, and we’ve seen similar vulnerabilities against the likes of Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia (56 yards) and Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava (44 yards).

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Jackson Arnold working on earning that F back in his name! This run was so damn amazing #OUDNA pic.twitter.com/NY3AvjmN1Y

— Jay☝️ (@unfairsports) November 24, 2024

Bama’s inconsistency has been a major storyline this season. Sure, they’ve had dominant showings against Georgia and LSU, but concerning performances against Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Oklahoma have raised some eyebrows. The Tide are dealing with multiple linebacker injuries and have lacked that vintage Saban-era dominance, especially at home.

Let’s not forget, last year’s Iron Bowl was a nail-biter, with Alabama barely escaping thanks to a miraculous fourth-and-long conversion. If Auburn can establish the run early with Hunter (who’s averaging a hefty 6.6 yards per carry) and utilize Thorne in the ground game, they have a legit chance to keep this one close.

The trends are in Auburn’s favor, too. The Tigers are 4-0 when Hunter reaches 100 yards rushing, and they’ve hit the first-half under in 9 of their last 12 games. If they can control the clock and limit turnovers against an Alabama defense that thrives on chaos, an outright upset isn’t out of the question.

Ultimately, I think the Tide’s talent advantage and home-field edge will be enough to secure the win. But with the line moving from Alabama -15.5 to -11.5, it’s clear that the sharps think Auburn has a real shot. I’m not laying the 11.5 points. Give me Auburn and the points, and maybe even sprinkle a bit on the moneyline for good measure.

• Prediction: Alabama 31, Auburn 24
• Pick: Auburn +11.5 (Moneyline Sprinkle)

Alabama vs Auburn Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Auburn	+11.5 (-110)	+375	O 52 (-110)
Alabama	-11.5 (-110)	-500	U 52 (-110)

The early line for this game was Alabama -15.5, but now it’s down to Alabama by 11.5. The significant line movement suggests that sharp bettors believe Auburn can keep this game closer than initially expected.

The Iron Bowl moneyline odds give Alabama an implied win probability of 83.3%, while Auburn sits at 21.1%. The total suggests oddsmakers expect a moderately high-scoring affair in Tuscaloosa.

The total opened at 52 points and has remained steady. Auburn is 2-5 to the over in SEC play this season, while Alabama has cashed the under in four straight conference games.

Bettors should continue to monitor the line movement leading up to kickoff, as further shifts could indicate where the smart money lies.

 

Odds as of November 29 from FanDuel Sportsbook. Get $150 in bonus bets by registering with the FanDuel promo code and wagering $5 on any game.

Head-to-Head History

Alabama has dominated the Iron Bowl in recent years, winning four straight and eight of the last 10. However, the games have been closer than the overall record suggests:

• 2023: Alabama 27, Auburn 24 (Alabama won on a last-second touchdown on fourth-and-long)
• 2022: Alabama 42, Auburn 13
• 2021: Alabama 24, Auburn 22 (4OT)
• 2020: Alabama 42, Auburn 13

While the Tide have had the upper hand, Auburn has been the better bet, covering in five of the last eight meetings. The underdog has also covered in six of the last eight Iron Bowls.