16/1 AC Milan vs Liverpool Bet Builder

Liverpool fouls per game and fouls drawn per game are massively inflated this season. A lot of the fouls that Liverpool are drawing seem to be concentrated in the middle of the park. Szoboszlai, Mac Allister and Gravenberch have combined for 16 fouls drawn this season in 4 games.

Gravenberch has drawn 6 fouls in 4, you’d expect Szoboszlai to draw more given he’s playing more advanced, but Gravenberch is so aggressive and pinching the ball back so often that he’s getting caught frequently in those 50/50 midfield duels. Loftus-Cheek on the other side has committed 6 fouls in 4, more than any other player in the Milan squad this season. Add the 5 fouls of Reijnders and Fofana to the mix and it bodes well for this selection.

Rafael Leao is definitely the biggest name in this Milan set up and he needs to step up to get them off to a good start in the UCL. Leao has the most SOT in the Milan squad this season with 4 in 3 starts at an average of 1.36 P/90. In the one game he failed to hit the target, he had 4 shots, so is clearly getting consistent chances.

The Portuguese winger carries an explosive threat and he is lining up against Liverpool’s much weaker side from a defensive standpoint. Hudson-Odoi scored against Liverpool at the weekend from the area Leao is likely to occupy. Leao has a goal and 2 assists in Serie A and up against Trent, away from VVD, he will back himself here.

Mohamed Salah looks to be well and truly back to his best after a slow second half of last season. He didn’t quite look himself last year but still consistently put up brilliant numbers and has hit the ground running in the 24/25 season. Salah has hit the target in each of his 4 league appearances this season with 2+ landing in 3 of those 4 games.

Salah has scored in all but 1 league game this season and it’s no surprise that it coincided with Liverpool dropping points. As well as his 3 goals, he’s managed 3 assists. 4-0 battering of Venezia aside, Milan have struggled at the back and have conceded 2 in every league game prior to that win. Salah should have his way in behind the space vacated by Theo.

Emerson is well known to Premier League fans, eyes will be on him here and he will be under serious pressure to perform. He committed 4 fouls in Serie A this season, despite only starting 2 games. 2+ landed in his most recent outing against Venezia this weekend one of the worst sides in the Serie A.

Emerson will likely be up against Diaz or Gakpo. Former is incredibly aggressive, he drew 1.44 P/90 last season. Gakpo will be far too physical for Emerson, he’s yet to really get a chance under Slot, but drew 2.08 P/90 last season and 8 in 5 at the Euros. Emerson has averaged over 1.00 fouls P/90 in every single season of his professional career and will struggle against real quality.